Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,096$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,079.4}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,079.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(96.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $528$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,905$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,052.0}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,052.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,762$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,775.0}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,775.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,643$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $210,717$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,186.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(207,186.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,884$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,504.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,504.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,179$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,158,040$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,211,029.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,211,029.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $67,682$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,232.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(72,232.7\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $910,206$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $187,842$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,229.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(199,229.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,520$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,587.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,587.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $158,421$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,317$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,891.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26,891.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,679$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,038.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,038.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,633$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $165,664$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,994.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(160,994.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,866$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(518 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,279.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,279.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,198$ on 2020-05-03