Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,096$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,079.4}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,079.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(96.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $528$ on 2020-05-03

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,905$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,052.0}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,052.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,762$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,775.0}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,775.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,643$ on 2020-05-03

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $210,717$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,186.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(207,186.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,884$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,504.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,504.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,179$ on 2020-05-03

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,158,040$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,211,029.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,211,029.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67,682$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,232.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(72,232.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $910,206$ on 2020-05-03

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $187,842$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(8.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,229.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(199,229.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,520$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,587.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,587.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $158,421$ on 2020-05-03

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,317$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,891.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26,891.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,679$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,038.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,038.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,633$ on 2020-05-03

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $165,664$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,994.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(160,994.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,866$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(518 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,279.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,279.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,198$ on 2020-05-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 93%
Thailand recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 82%
Australia recovered 82%
Austria recovered 81%
New Zealand recovered 79%
Malta recovered 77%
Burkina Faso recovered 76%
Switzerland recovered 75%
Taiwan* recovered 69%
Iran recovered 63%
Niger recovered 62%
Germany recovered 61%
Andorra recovered 58%
Croatia recovered 58%
North Macedonia recovered 51%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 47%
Denmark recovered 46%
Uzbekistan recovered 40%
Costa Rica recovered 38%
Israel recovered 37%
Spain recovered 28%
Czechia recovered 27%
Turkey recovered 26%
Slovakia recovered 25%
Cuba recovered 11%
Italy recovered 7%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,964$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,292.0}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,292.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,085.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 24.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,085.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $643$ on 2020-05-03

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(335 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 23.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $72$ on 2020-05-03

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,969$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(787 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,890.3}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 18.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,890.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(20 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.7}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 10.1)}}\) (asimptote \(53.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $176$ on 2020-05-03

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,801$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,297.3}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,297.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $252$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(50.1 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{258.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(258.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,332$ on 2020-05-03